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Economics: A Postmortem Necessary
Part VII: Foreign Investment in the US: What information can we find in these figures? Abstract: In the later part of the 1990s, foreign investors were investing more in US-based companies than the US was in foreign-based companies. Most of the foreign direct investment occurred in high-tech manufacturing industries. But did jobs rise in these US sectors due to this investment? Not necessarily. Paper: We always hear how the US companies are leaving the US or investing in manufacturing jobs abroad. The previous paper in this series exposed how the US businesses were indeed investing in manufacturing sectors abroad, as alleged, but they were investing three times more in the foreign non-depository financial industries -- brokerages, pensions, mutual funds, insurance companies, real estate. This paper tries to show which US sectors attracted Net Foreign Direct Investment in the late 90s. Using the Bureau of Economic Analysis data on Foreign Direct Investment in the US: Total Capital Flows: 1994-1999, the following table was constructed: Foreign Investment in the USA by Industry: 1994-1999 data (investment figures in Millions of Dollars)
(Note: Regions in yellow show US sectors with negative net Foreign Direct Investment. See footnotes for explanations to 1, 2, 3.) Summary of Table: In the later part of the 1990s Foreign Direct Investment in US outpaced US Direct Investment Abroad. And after 1997 the world seemed to be pouring money into the US economy. Between 1994-1999, Foreign Direct Investment in US Manufacturing sectors rose most consistently, and occured predominantly in the Computer and Electronics, Transportation Equipment, and also in Chemicals and Allied Products industries -- an increase of 300%. The Food and Kindred Products and the Primary and Fabricated Metals industries saw too much fluctuation, the numbers for Foreign Direct Investing shifting every 2yrs between negative and positive. Chemical and Allied Products and also the Primary and Fabricated Metals sectors fluctuated a lot, from positive to negative growth. Foreign Direct Investment in US Machinery went up sharply later in 1999 -- compared to 1994 figure, by 350% -- but declined between 1994-1996. Other sectors such as Depository Institutions and also Finance (non-depository) some some level of uncertainty year-to-year, though the increases from 1994 to 1999 figures were sharp -- Depository by 400%; Non-depository by 1900%. Real Estate and Insurance doubled. The Connection between Foreign Direct Investment and Jobs in the US? Now that we know that Foreign Direct Investment in the US high-tech Manufacturing sectors went up what should we assume about jobs in these sector? After all, a rise in Foreign Direct Investment in any sector may not imply a rise in over-all investment in that sector. And even if over all investment rises, what's to say companies will hire more people? There are many situations in which companies do not increase employment even if investment goes up. In times of recessions, when capital and labor force alike are under-utilized, there may not be a ready increase in labor employment. In the 1994-1999 time period however, the US was enjoying GDP growth, a scenario that signals more positive expectations for the future. In such a case, one might expect employment numbers to be going up in general and in these sectors. But a look at actual employment numbers might say a different story. Employment Changes by Industry: I know that investment today does not lead to employment rise today. Hence I emphasized sectors that showed positive growth in Foreign Direct Investment below. A look at Paper VII B: How Employment Changed between 1994-1999 in the US is necessary to see if employment changed in the sectors that recieved Net Foreign Direct Investment.
These figures reveal that a 400% rise in Foreign Direct Investment in the US corresponded with an 8% rise in employment overall. It also corresponded to an almost insignificant rise of 1.3% in manufacturing employment. A 200% rise in Transportation Investment corresponded with a 14% rise in employment in the transportation sector. And a 1900% increase in Non-depository Finance lead to a 10% rise in employment in that sector. This implies that there is no strong correlation between % rise in Foreign Direct Investment and in % change in Employment in that sector, though there is a positive one. Is the Converse True? When employment rises do we assume that net foreign direct investment has gone up? Looking again at Paper VII B: How Employment Changed between 1994-1999 in the US one sees that some sectors grew despite no rise in Foreign Direct Investment. Thus, foreign direct investment is not a sign of growth in the US, where domestic private investment is healthy. Foreign Direct Investment is more strongly related to employment statistics when neither Government Spending nor Private Domestic Investment are significant. This is the case in many poorer nations. What explains Foreign Investment figures? Investors are attracted to expectations of high-performance or the illusion of it. Investors get a risk premium in exchange for investing in a business. Hence, if, premium discovery is possible, and if they wish to maximize risk premium, investors follow businesses that offer maximum interest rates on business loans and maximum capital gains and dividend income potential on stocks of the company. As for why businesses relocate or give business to foreign companies, it's usually due to some assesment of greater returns. Perhaps there are reduced barriers to capital markets or tax incentives. Perhaps wages are cheaper. Always, economic conditions that companies are exposed to determines their mobility globally. It leads to competitiveness and alliances across borders. The 1994-1999 figures showed some sharp changes in some sectors. Why did those happen? The period after 1996 saw a sharp jump in Foreign Direct Investment in some sectors. Why kind of market forces shaped those? Was it the collapse of the Asian Banking system in the Far East? The global panic following the Stock Market Crash of 1997? But the Finance sectors shown did not show a rapid rise in 1997, but a rapid rise in 1996, followed by a fall in 1997, and then a rise in 1998. Were the finance industry investors worldwide apprehensive about the finance industry and trying to invest in other industries -- like Chemical and Allied Products? International Trade and Multinationals The questions raised in this paper reveal that by themselves these figures on Foreign Direct Investment in the US reveals very little. They don't include anything about the business relationships that we see in global markets. The Loop: Let's take the scenario where a US-based manufacturer of clothes goes to say, Bangladesh, and invests in a Bangladeshi garments company. Possible outcomes of this are:
It's hard to make sense of how any multinational company or a company exposed to international trade and investment is better or worse off from the way actual Investment figures for US Direct Investment or Foreign Investment in the US look. We must investigate for such loops. Skepticism in Statistics: So, perhaps a net gain in Bangladeshi Direct Investment in the machinery industry in the US is the cause of a net gain in US direct investment in the Garments industry in Bangladesh. And perhaps this happens despite there being cheaper options in China or India. Perhaps some nations have the ability to set such conditional contracts and greatly coerce Foreign Investors. The fact that there is a direct power disparity between Bangladesh and the US -- both economic and military -- gives the US and such super powers much leahway in how international trade is done. As such, Foreign Direct Investment statistics may be more representative of how good US businesses and embassies abroad are in deal-making with foreign counterparts and thus less and less reflective of the competitiveness of US sectors recieving foreign investment. Notes: 1994-1995 and Industry Data came from here. 1. It's not clear if Machinery includes Electrical Equipment and Appliances and Transportation Equipment, for 1994-1996. 2. 1994-1996 Real Estate and Insurance figures were added, since after that, the sum was shown. 3. It's not clear if Services in 1994-1996 included Professional, Scientific, Technical Services. 4. It's not clear if Other in 1994-1996 is defined same as for after years. 5. It's not clear what transportation equipment includes - vehicles, airplanes etc. |
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