Are US and China heading for a Cold War?

by Cherrie Lynn Lipsett

China is developing along the same path as the U.S. did starting in the late 1800’s -- it is having its industrial revolution. The US’s dynamic economy forced it to go outward to protect its economic interest and meet its supply of raw materials. China’s economy is forcing it to go outward to meet not only its raw material needs but also its energy needs. For China to keep control of its raw material supplies and energy supplies around the world it will have to take an interest in the politics of the countries where it is invested.  That is not to say that China will ask or force these countries to become like it. But China will need to ensure that there are governments in power that will honor the contracts made with China. 

China Wooing Latin America

China is now starting to bump into what is conventionally US sphere of influence.  This according to the article "Magic or Realism", published in the Jan. 1st-7th 2005 issue of The Economist. The article follows People's Republic of China President Hu Jintao's visit to Argentina, Brazil and Chile, which took place in November 2004. In this visit, Jintao promised to lay out billions of dollars in improving the guest region’s infrastructure. He also vowed that China’s imports from Latin America would grow even faster -- namely oil from Venezuela, a nation that belongs to OPEC and also supplies the US with oil.  Jintao also added Argentina and Brazil to China’s list of approved tourist destinations.

It should be noted that China’s imports from the region have nearly tripled since 2002.

China-Cuba Relations

China's involvement with fellow communist nation, Cuba, also has the US intrigued. China is investing in oil production off the coast of Cuba, offering cheap loans to Cuba for an electronics plant in Cuba, and also helping to refurbish crumbling hospitals in Cuba. (See The Economist, Jan. 15th-21st 2005, "With help from oil and Friends"). 

Cause for Worry?

We all know that the U.S. considers South America and the Caribbean as its own personal backyard. If China’s philanthropy to these left-leaning countries of South America didn’t raise the hair on the neck of the Bush administration enough, I assure you the generous loans to Cuba didn’t help to appease the Bush administration any.

Chipping Away at Japan, Korea Power?

As if these were not enough, China has also paid $25 million for 25 years of natural gas from Australia which was previously going to Japan and South Korea.  PHP Biltilon of Australia, a company that mines low-grade iron-ore, has just made a long-term deal with China to buy the iron-ore. So influential is trade with China, that China is one of the central players in the resent boom in Australia. To the Bush-Cheney administration’s way of looking at it, China is also cutting into the US’s power-base with Australia. (See Notes for Jane Perlez articles on China in the New York Times). Or is it?

Do Sanctions Apply to China?

China has cancelled the effects of sanctions that the Bush administration put on Myanmar by investing in the Burmese economy. One of the main resources China needs from Myanmar is wood, especially teak, which is highly prized in China. (See New York Times analysis by Jane Perlez).

Robert Kaplan, in a three-hour interview on C-SPAN the weekend of April 2nd & 3rd 2005, stated that he will have an article in the next edition of the Atlantic magazine on the coming naval Cold War in the Pacific with China. A writer, Robert Kaplan is seen as a serious strategic thinker by the top brass in the military, according to Thomas P. M. Barnnet, and is often called on by different branches of the U.S. military to give talks. When a caller on the Show asked Mr. Kaplan what he saw in store for U.S. and China relations,  Mr. Kaplan stated, "We are entering upon a new naval-oriented Cold-War in the Pacific with China. It need not be violent. It will, hopefully, contain China without provoking it."

US-China Confrontations & Predictions

I bring you back to 2001 and the surveillance plane incident with China.  Rumsfield vowed we would fly the plane home.  It came home in boxes.  China will not back down if we provoke it, I predict.  I do not see this as being just a naval Cold War in the Pacific. I do not see this as being just between the U.S. & China, either.

Notes:  

Jane Perlez articles on China, New York Times:

Southeast Asia Urged to Form Economic Bloc

Chinese Move to Eclipse U.S. Appeal in South Asia

The World: Australia Eyes Asia; Wary of Neighbors

Across Asia, Beijing's Star Is in Ascendance

U.S. Chief Pushes Oil Giant's Moves Beyond Australia

Driven by Wealth and Patriotism, Chinese Collectors Bid for Their Treasures

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